Tough Decision

Good decision making isn’t easy. I’ve had the opportunity to see it in others, and it’s an area I’m actively trying to get better at. Of course, some decisions are straightforward, but the ones that aren’t can be paralyzing. Hard decisions usually present themselves with too many unknowns–too little data or scarce information.

This week, we kicked off a workshop (Design Thinking for Healthcare Providers) with my colleague Ty Hagler. During the talk, he introduced a conceptual framework called the Cynefin Framework. As I learned about it, I had a realization that this was a missing ingredient I’d been struggling with for years. How does one approach solving a set a problems that are fundamentally different in nature?

The Cynefin (kuh-nev-in) Framework

Cynefin is a welsh word that doesn’t have a direct translation in English. Loosely, it means ‘habitat’, ‘acquainted’ or ‘familiar’. It’s a brainchild of Dave Snowden from IBM and published in the late 90’s (@snowden_leaders_2007).

Cynefin Framework

It describes five different ‘types’ of problems or issues, namely:

  1. Simple: A problem where the cause is known and the effect is predictable. An example here would be mass production of a product. If something breaks, one can analyze the standardized process to determine how to fix it. Best practices are well suited here.

  2. Complicated: A situation with known unknowns and with many variables, but fundamentally a logic puzzle. An example here would be launching a new startup company. The distinction here is that one take many paths to achieve a good result, as opposed the best as above.

  3. Complex: This type is a hard one. Lots of uncertainty and likelihood of emerging phenomena. An example would be conceptualizing and creating new product from scratch. This is why startups are so risky.

  4. Chaotic: How do you decide what to do if you find a burglar in your house? This is the domain of dealing with a crisis in real-time, where quick action is paramount. You don’t have the luxury of time or enough information.

  5. Disorder: This one is a bit of a special case. Disorder is the domain where you aren’t sure which type of issue or problem you’re dealing with. This one is the most dangerous.

I’m always on the lookout for adding mental models to my toolbox. My goal is to test this as I encounter difficult issues to tackle.